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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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market analysis
When the ringgit reaches a one-year high, who is "locking" the rising logic of palm oil?
Wonderful introduction:
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: When the ringgit reaches a one-year high, who is "locking" the rising logic of palm oil?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Wednesday (November 12), the benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 of the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended its consecutive gains in the previous two trading days and closed down 12 ringgit (0.29%) to 4,125 ringgit per ton. The market fluctuated lower under the pressure of the strong ringgit, and traders became cautious about the short-term price outlook.
Double pressure on the exchange rate and related markets
On that day, the ringgit’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar climbed 0.07% to 4.133, setting a new high in a year. David Ng, a proprietary trader at Kuala Lumpur trading xmxyly.company Iceberg
At the same time, the differentiated performance of the external oil and fat market has intensified volatility. The main soybean oil contract on the Dalian xmxyly.commodity Exchange edged up 0.44%, while the palm oil contract fell slightly by 0.09%; soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 0.2%. While palm oil's price differentials with xmxyly.competing oils dominate the long-term trend, short-term exchange rate fluctuations clearly dominate.
Weak crude oil markets have further dampened demand for palm oil biodiesel. International oil prices fell nearly 1% that day, mainly dragged down by concerns about global oversupply. Although market expectations that the end of the long U.S. government shutdown may boost energy demand, the positive news did not reverse the decline. Palm oil as biodiesel feedstock weakens as crude oil weakensEconomic efficiency is significantly reduced.
The supply and demand pattern has quietly changed
Pressure on the supply side continues to accumulate. Industry sources in Malaysia revealed that the country’s crude palm oil production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time in 2025. This historic growth is due to the improvement of climate conditions, the recovery of labor supply, and the contribution of high-yield new plantations. If realized, pressure on global palm oil inventories may further intensify.
Highlights on the demand side still exist. Data from Indonesia's Ministry of Energy show that as of November 10, the country's biodiesel consumption has reached 12.25 million kiloliters (based on fatty acid methyl esters made from palm oil). This data shows that mandatory biodiesel policies are still providing support for palm oil demand. In addition, China's state-owned enterprise COFCO recently signed an agreement to purchase agricultural products including palm oil from Brazil, with a total volume of nearly 20 million tons and a value of more than 10 billion US dollars. This trend may pave the way for future import demand in the East Asian market.
Institutional views and market logic
In response to the current market disagreements, well-known institutional analysts emphasized the need to dynamically evaluate long and short factors. On the one hand, the trend of the ringgit and fluctuations in crude oil prices pose short-term pressure; on the other hand, the game between production growth and policy needs will determine the medium- and long-term direction. Some analysts pointed out: "If the appreciation trend of the ringgit continues, the decline in export xmxyly.competitiveness may offset the benefits brought by the seasonal decline in production." However, there are also views that strong data on Indonesian biodiesel consumption and the purchasing trends of Chinese xmxyly.companies suggest that demand resilience may exceed expectations.
Future concerns and potential turning points
In the short term, the market needs to focus on three major variables: first, whether the ringgit exchange rate can maintain its strength; second, Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel testing progress and export policy adjustments; third, Malaysia’s November production and inventory data. If crude oil prices rebound in the future or the weather in production areas is abnormal, the current bearish logic may be quickly revised.
It is worth noting that although long-term supply pressure cannot be ignored, if there is unexpected growth on the demand side (such as an increase in the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel or an increase in imports from emerging markets), the reshaping of the supply and demand balance sheet may push prices to break through the current shock range. Traders need to be wary of the amplifying effect of marginal changes in fundamentals on market sentiment.
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