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market analysis
The supply flood has arrived, why does palm oil refuse to fall deeply?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The supply flood has arrived, why does palm oil refuse to fall deeply?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (November 13), despite facing the dual pressure of rising production and weakening demand in India, Malaysian palm oil futures still ended up slightly higher today. As of the close, the main January contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed at 4,126 ringgit/ton, a slight increase of 2 ringgit from the previous day. It dipped during the session and then stabilized and rebounded. This trend highlights the market's difficult balance between negative fundamentals and short-term capital games.
Pressure on the supply side continues to increase
This year, Malaysia’s palm oil output is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time. This historic breakthrough is due to favorable weather conditions, the easing of labor shortages in plantations, and the entry of high-yielding new plantations into maturity. At the same time, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) show that Indonesia's output has exceeded 43 million tons from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The flood of supply from the two major producing countries is gradually being realized.
Anilkumar Bagani, research director of SunvinGroup in Mumbai, pointed out: "The risk of Malaysian production exceeding 20 million tons resonates with Indonesia's double-digit growth, coupled with the crude oil sell-off and the strengthening of the ringgit, jointly suppressing palm oil prices." His view points directly to the core contradiction of the current market-the loose supply pattern is difficult to shake.
Structural changes on the demand side
India’s palm oil imports in 2024/25 plummeted to a five-year low, while soybean oil purchases hit a record high. This shift stems from the continued widening of the price gap between palm oil and xmxyly.competing oils, weakening its price advantage. It is worth noting that today’s soybean oil futures on the Dalian xmxyly.commodity Exchange closed up 0.6%, while Chicago soybean oil alsorose 0.4%, in contrast to slight fluctuations in palm oil. If the price difference pattern continues, it may further consolidate the share of soybean oil in major importing countries.
On the other hand, the continued weakness in crude oil prices has inhibited the attractiveness of palm oil in the biodiesel field. Although Indonesia's B35 and other diesel fuel policies provide long-term support, the short-term energy market sentiment is sluggish and it is difficult to provide an effective boost to palm oil. In addition, the ringgit appreciated by 0.17% against the US dollar. Although the magnitude is limited, continued strength will intensify the import cost pressure on the buyer's country.
Institutional perspective and market logic
Many well-known institutions believe that the current market is in a game of "strong reality and weak expectations". SunvinGroup emphasized that the xmxyly.combination of output exceeding the critical point and monetary factors may limit the room for future price rebounds. Some analysts also pointed out that although long-term supply pressure is clear, variables such as the recent slowdown in Malaysian inventory growth and the adjustment of Indonesian export quotas may provide periodic support to the market.
From the perspective of trading logic, the dynamics of price differences between palm oil and xmxyly.competing oils, policy trends in major producing countries (such as export tax adjustments, implementation of mandatory blending of firewood), and the trend of the ringgit exchange rate will become key factors affecting price fluctuations in the xmxyly.coming months. Particular attention needs to be paid to whether India will readjust its procurement structure after the price difference narrows, which may become the biggest variable on the demand side.
Future concerns and risk warnings
In the short term, the market needs to digest the known negative factors, but the demand for a technical rebound after oversold and the liquidation of short positions may cause fluctuations. In the medium to long term, if the crude oil market stabilizes and major producing countries control the pace of exports through policy measures, supply pressure may be partially offset. However, if the rebuilding process of global vegetable oil inventories accelerates, the downward trend in price center of gravity may be difficult to reverse.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The flood of supply has arrived, why does palm oil refuse to fall deeply?" It was carefully xmxyly.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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